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This paper presents a data-driven approach for predicting the propagation of traffic congestion at road segments as a function of the congestion in their neighboring segments. In the past, this problem has mostly been addressed by modelling the traffic congestion over some standard physical phenomenon through which it is difficult to capture all the modalities of such a dynamic and complex system. While other recent works have focused on applying a generalized data-driven technique on the whole network at once, they often ignore intersection characteristics. On the contrary, we propose a city-wide ensemble of intersection level connected LSTM models and propose mechanisms for identifying congestion events using the predictions from the networks. To reduce the search space of likely congestion sinks we use the likelihood of congestion propagation in neighboring road segments of a congestion source that we learn from the past historical data. We validated our congestion forecasting framework on the real world traffic data of Nashville, USA and identified the onset of congestion in each of the neighboring segments of any congestion source with an average precision of 0.9269 and an average recall of 0.9118 tested over ten congestion events. 

Traffic networks are one of the most critical infrastructures for any community. The increasing integration of smart and connected sensors in traffic networks provides researchers with unique opportunities to study the dynamics of this critical community infrastructure. Our focus in this paper is on the failure dynamics of traffic networks. We are specifically interested in analyzing the cascade effects of traffic congestions caused by physical incidents, focusing on developing mechanisms to isolate and identify the source of a congestion. To analyze failure propagation, it is crucial to develop (a) monitors that can identify an anomaly and (b) a model to capture the dynamics of anomaly propagation. In this paper, we use real traffic data from Nashville, TN to demonstrate a novel anomaly detector and a Timed Failure Propagation Graph based diagnostics mechanism. Our novelty lies in the ability to capture the the spatial information and the interconnections of the traffic network as well as the use of recurrent neural network architectures to learn and predict the operation of a graph edge as a function of its immediate peers, including both incoming and outgoing branches. To study physical traffic incidents, we augment the real data with simulated data generated using SUMO, a microscopic traffic simulator. Our results show that we are able to build LSTM-based traffic-speed predictors with an average loss of 6.55 × 10^−4 compared to Gaussian Process Regression based predictors with an average loss of 1.78 × 10^−2. We are also able to detect anomalies with high precision and recall, resulting in an AUC of 0.8507 for the precision-recall curve. Finally, formulating the cascade propagation problem as a Timed Failure Propagation Graph, we are able to identify the source of a failure accurately. 

The push to automate and digitize the electric grid has led to widespread installation of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) for improved real-time wide-area system monitoring and control. Nevertheless, transforming large volumes of highresolution PMU measurements into actionable insights remains challenging. A central challenge is creating flexible and scalable online anomaly detection in PMU data streams. PMU data can hold multiple types of anomalies arising in the physical system or the cyber system (measurements and communication networks). Increasing the grid situational awareness for noisy measurement data and Bad Data (BD) anomalies has become more and more significant. Number of machine learning, data analytics and physics based algorithms have been developed for anomaly detection, but need to be validated with realistic synchophasor data. Access to field data is very challenging due to confidentiality and security reasons. This paper presents a method for generating realistic synchrophasor data for the given synthetic network as well as event and bad data detection and classification algorithms. The developed algorithms include Bayesian and change-point techniques to identify anomalies, a statistical approach for event localization and multi-step clustering approach for event classification. Developed algorithms have been validated with satisfactory results for multiple examples of power system events including faults and load/generator/capacitor variations/switching for an IEEE test system. Set of synchrophasor data will be available publicly for other researchers. 

Bus transit systems are the backbone of public transportation in the United States. An important indicator of the quality of service in such infrastructures is on-time performance at stops, with published transit schedules playing an integral role governing the level of success of the service. However there are relatively few optimization architectures leveraging stochastic search that focus on optimizing bus timetables with the objective of maximizing probability of bus arrivals at timepoints with delays within desired on-time ranges. In addition to this, there is a lack of substantial research considering monthly and seasonal variations of delay patterns integrated with such optimization strategies. To address these, this paper makes the following contributions to the corpus of studies on transit on-time performance optimization: (a) an unsupervised clustering mechanism is presented which groups months with similar seasonal delay patterns, (b) the problem is formulated as a single-objective optimization task and a greedy algorithm, a genetic algorithm (GA) as well as a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm are employed to solve it, (c) a detailed discussion on empirical results comparing the algorithms are provided and sensitivity analysis on hyper-parameters of the heuristics are presented along with execution times, which will help practitioners looking at similar problems. The analyses conducted are insightful in the local context of improving public transit scheduling in the Nashville metro region as well as informative from a global perspective as an elaborate case study which builds upon the growing corpus of empirical studies using nature-inspired approaches to transit schedule optimization 

An effective real-time estimation of the travel time for vehicles, using AVL (Automatic Vehicle Locators) has added a new dimension to the smart city planning. In this paper, the authors used data collected over several months from a transit agency and show how this data can be potentially used to learn patterns of travel time during specially planned events like NFL (National Football League) games and music award ceremonies. The impact of NFL games along with consideration of other factors like weather, traffic condition, distance is discussed with their relative importance to the prediction of travel time. Statistical learning models are used to predict travel time and subsequently assess the cascading effects of delay. The model performance is determined based on its predictive accuracy according to the out-of-sample error. In addition, the models help identify the most significant variables that influence the delay in the transit system. In order to compare the actual and predicted travel time for days having special events, heat maps are generated showing the delay impacts in different time windows between two timepoint-segments in comparison to a non-game day. This work focuses on the prediction and visualization of the delay in the public transit system and the analysis of its cascading effects on the entire transportation network. According to the study results, the authors are able to explain more than 80% of the variance in the bus travel time at each segment and can make future travel predictions during planned events with an out-of-sample error of 2.0 minutes using information on the bus schedule, traffic, weather, and scheduled events. According to the variable importance analysis, traffic information is most significant in predicting the delay in the transit system.